了解首次公开发售的价值--MAXIS IPO 涟漪

11月可说是今年市场最兴旺的月份，5家公司不同而约在大马交易所挂牌上市，发售首次公开发售（IPO）以筹集总值约118亿令吉的资金。虽然亚洲的 IPO热潮在近期内因为中国企业的过量献售而有所减退，但我国市场却逆向而行的迎来多个IPO计划，而当中最令人雀跃的莫过于明讯 (Maxis)的IPO。此次的明讯IPO发售计划可说是今年亚太区最大型的，虽说可供公众申购的数量有限，而且截止日期已到，但这依然是受国内外投资者所瞩目的市场活动，本期就让我们就借以明讯的上市来谈谈IPO的价值评估方法。
首次公开发售(IPO)是私人公司首次发售予公众的股票。这些私人公司通常都是属于较小型、年轻的公司，以寻求资金扩展业务，但也可以是寻求上市的大型私人公司。IPO的投资风险较大，因为股票是新上市的，投资者很难去预测其未来发展， 也碍于缺少过去的表现报告，以致不确定因素较一般股票高。

然而这次的明讯IPO是个比较特别的例子，因为这是该公司的第二次寻求上市，投资者可参考及研究明讯过去5年（2002至2007）的股市表现。另外，身为全马最大的电讯服务提供者、占市场40% 比重的明讯，其业绩和发展一直以来都是市场焦点，所以要搜索相关资料并不难，也降低了当中的不确定因素。

适逢久违的大型集资活动，投资者对于明讯的IPO发售感到雀跃、反映相当热烈是可以理解的。本人也被分配1000股，在最后一天特的驾车到MIH在总部交上蓝表格，出现大塞车，大家都忙着在最后一天，希望在MAXIS IPO里赚一笔，好久都没有这样热烈的情况了。不过，大家要知道，除了公司所给予的乐观展望与回酬保证，投资者本身还是要保持机警，自己分析IPO或是其他股票的价值，避免被公司的花言巧语所魅惑。

就像是市场的金融证券或是超市的消费者产品，IPO的价格也同样被供应和需求所左右。当出现供不应求的情况时，股价就会攀升；当供应过剩时，股价就会下跌。这次的明讯IPO超额认购已经达到一倍，表示该公司能把股价调高至超过预定的 5.20令吉。虽说是优质的蓝筹股，但其股价是否合理，只要计算一下就可大略知道了。

要知道股价是否合理，可通过股票的市盈率（P/E）来做指标。将每股市价除以每股盈利（Earning Per Share, EPS），得到的结果再用来与其他同类股票的市盈率比较，可帮助投资者选择适合的股票。一般而言，越低的市盈率表示股票的投资风险越小。以明讯的每股市价来推测，其市盈率并不低，风险也较高；但是其高股息、强劲的自由现金流量，以及给予投资者参与大马流动通讯服务的机会等，让许多投资者认为这项投资是值得的。

要分析某家公司的IPO是否值得投资，以及减低损失，事前功课一定少不了。在决定投资前不妨先问问自己 以下这些问题，以便更全面分析某项IPO的价值：
1. 为什么这家公司会被批准挂牌上市？
2. 该公司集资的目的是什么？会把筹到的资金用在什么用途上？
3. 该公司的产品或服务所面对的市场竞争。该公司在竞争环境下的地位是什么？
4. 该公司的成长展望是多少？
5. 该公司预期会达到多少收入？
6. 公司的管理层是否曾经运营上市公司？是否有足够的经验和资历去经营该公司？在商业投机方面是否曾经获得成功？管理层本身有没有持有股份？
7. 该公司的营运纪录表现如何？
不管是IPO还是其他股票，聪明的投资者不会盲目跟风，反而会先分析股价。如果他们发现是物有所值的，他们会购买并长期持有该股票。相反的，如果发现该股票的价格不合理，他们也不会浪费时间和金钱，反而会把注意力放在其他公司。这就是市场永不变的定律。

〈奧士卡理财---理财天下〉 (220)--南洋商报（每逢星期五）

Think Like Warren Buffett

Back in 1999, Robert G. Hagstrom wrote a book about the legendary investor Warren Buffett, entitled "The Warren Buffett Portfolio". What's so great about the book, and what makes it different from the countless other books and articles written about the "Oracle of Omaha" is that it offers the reader valuable insight into how Buffett actually thinks about investments. In other words, the book delves into the psychological mindset that has made Buffett so fabulously wealthy. (For more on Warren Buffett and his current holdings, check out Coattail Investor.)

Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we've selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett's head.

1. Think of Stocks as a Business

Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn't necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.

That's why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as "part owners" of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term "owners" also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns.

2. Increase the Size of Your Investment
Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due diligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.

Buffett's stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it's not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?

3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover

Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That's because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.

The "Oracle" contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.

Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They'll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.

4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks

While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.

Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that.

5. Learn to Think in Probabilities

Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world.

Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents' hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.

Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.

6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing

Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.

More than anything, investors' own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to "retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."

Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset.

7. Ignore Market Forecasts

There is an old saying that the Dow "climbs a wall of worry". In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is "just around the corner", the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.

On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.

In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company's intrinsic value(through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.

8. Wait for the Fat Pitch

Hagstrom's book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player.

Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.

Bottom Line

"The Warren Buffett Portfolio" is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett's proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.@by Glenn Curtis

SOHO族的生活与理财方式 1

金融风暴造成企业盈利减少，甚至面临亏损、倒闭的危机。美国著名汽车生产商通用汽车公司申请破产保护，结束其曾经是全球最大汽车制造商的光荣时刻。本地也有旅行社在不堪金融海啸的冲击，以及近期的甲型H1N1流感的爆发，而突然清盘停业，令客户与相关业者感到惊讶。

其实经济衰退已从政府公布的数据中显现出来，我国首季国内生产总值剧跌至8年来新低，经济成长呈负成长6.2%。有些员工被缩减工作时数、一些人则放无薪假期或被裁员，造成收入大大减少。

在工作难求之下，失业者只好从事兼职或短期合约的工作，这样总比失业来得好吧。另一方面，在经济萎缩的担忧之下，一些公司更愿意聘请临时员工，或将工作外包给别人，以节省各种全职员工的福利支出。这就形成了经济虽不好，兼职的机会却有增加的趋势。

根据人力资源顾问公司Kelly Services的调查显示，美国现今的就业人口中，自由工作者的比例达26%，比3年前的19%成长，增加了7%。我国的情况也相似，尤其在宽频（broadband）以及办公软件的普及化之下，在家办公已不是遥不可及的任务了。

自由工作者也可被称为SOHO族，既英文small office home office 的缩写，就是有别于传统在公司上班的工作模式，而是在自己的家里办公。在家里工作或许是许多上班族的理想工作环境，因为SOHO族不用一大早起床塞在车龙里，也可以自由地分配个人的时间。

但是，并不是每种行业都适合以SOHO方式进行。最普遍的SOHO行业包括了网络拍卖、平面设计、文字创作、造型设计、专业顾问、公关等。SOHO的自由特性尤其更适合艺术创作者，因为SOHO族的工作时间与地点较富弹性，SOHO族可从生活中获取更多的创作灵感，不用受办公室的制度所牵制。

SOHO族并不单单在家工作那么简单，SOHO族也可以分成以下几种：

（一）自雇人士

自雇人士既是老板也是员工，收入的多少全由自己的努力、成果而定。有些自雇人士服务于特定的企业；有些人则同时间为不同的公司提供服务，不受制于任何企业。自雇人士包括了保险人员、直销人士、会计师等等。

（二）兼职SOHO

兼职SOHO顾名思义就是那些有工作的上班族，利用下班或周日休息的时间从事兼职。这群SOHO族利用多余的时间为自己增加收入，并可累积更多的工作经验。一些兼职SOHO拥有全职工作的保障之余，也希望涉及新的领域，或开创自己的事业。

所以，SOHO一族接外包工作回家，或成立网上购物网，都是测试个人的能力，以及试探市场的方法之一。若市场反应良好，兼职SOHO就能全身投入在SOHO行业中，摆脱打卡上班的日子了。

（三）企业SOHO

SOHO族中并不是全部人都自己当老板，也有一些SOHO族为特定的企业打工。他们与一般上班族的分别在于，他们不用时常到办公室，而是在家里办公。这群SOHO族利用科技的方便与公司或客户联络，例如MSN、Skpe、email等等。他们所从事的职业包括了翻译员、网站制作员等等，并且熟悉一切科技与网络操作。

其实成为SOHO族有利有弊，好处是较弹性的工作时间与地点，以及不受上司或老板的牵制。但是，一些人在开始SOHO生活时，却无法自律，早上的工作拖到中午才开始。

此外，一些SOHO族则将生活与工作混为一体，将工作时间都用来购买食物、日常用品、处理家务等等。若家人不了解SOHO族的工作方式，一直找他们聊天、处理家里的各种琐碎事情，就会严重影响SOHO族的工作进度。

因此，SOHO族的工作时间就被这些繁杂事务所占据，造成他们必须开夜车才能将工作完成。对于突如其来的订单或案子，SOHO族也没有同事可以共同分担，必须独自完成工作。

这样一来，SOHO族的工作时间就比普通上班族更长，健康也可能因此受损。所以，一名成功的SOHO族必须有自制能力，以及良好的时间管理，才能在工作与生活间取得平衡。