回顾过去，展望未来（上）

2009 年转眼间就快要成为过去式了，相信很多人都会在新的一年来临之际回顾过去一年来自己的成就与成长，以及为接下来的一年定下目标，无论是在事业、感情、个人修行等，当然也少不了财富这方面了。
成为有钱人这个目标虽然可能离我们很远，但理财规划却是跟我们的日常生活息息相关。在2009年，你是否有按照计划并实践规划财务的目标？本期就让我们一起来回顾过去、展望未来，看看你是否有做到以下这些理财相关的步骤，并且为2010年的来临定下理财进度表，一步一步实现你的财务目标。
1. 储蓄
你将钱存进银行户口了吗？这句话看起来有点可笑，因为要靠银行利息来累计财富是不可能的。虽说储蓄户口的利息很少，但也千万别小看这些小钱。别心急的将所有钱都用来投资，应该等待适当的投资机会出现时再出击。在此之前，储蓄户口不失为方便安全的金钱存放处。在你等待投资机会的过程中利息已经慢慢在累计，特别是定期存款户口。将钱分成数份然后放进不同周期的定存，需要时再拿出来用，如此一来就无需担心少赚利息了。

2. 债务
新的一年来临，最避忌就是把往年的旧债带来，所以当务之急就是把手上的债务逐一清除掉。还记得政府宣布从2010年开始每张信用卡要征收RM 50的服务税吗？政府的目的是要减低国民的卡债数额，避免毫无节制的花费。如果你手上拥有很多张信用卡，不妨将数量减至经常使用的一两张。除了涉及庞大数额的房贷、车贷、医药费、教育贷款等之外，其他短期内可还清的债务都应该尽早解决掉。

3. 风险管理
风险管理可说是理财规划的基础，在思考如何累计更多财富之前，是时候考虑购买保险或检视你过去的保单。每个年龄层对保险的需求都不一样，从人寿、医药、意外、退休，教育保单等，你应依据本身及家人的需求选购合适的保险；每个人（家庭）的保险支出应该是在年收入的10% 以内。
除了购买保险，立遗嘱也是未雨绸缪的方式之一，特别如果你是家庭的经济支柱，在发生任何不幸意外之前就应该对自己的财产有所规划，以保护受益人。
另外，你已经准备了紧急备用金吗？我们随时都可能面临突然需要一笔钱来应急的情况，先确认自己的紧急备用金是否足够，一般是3到5个月的生活费，必要时可依情况再做增减。

4. 为庞大开支做准备
如果你有计划购买房产或汽车，甚至是全家人出国旅行，你应该趁早为这些计划做好准备。每个月挪出一小部分钱存进特定的户口，让数额慢慢累计至某个程度，例如至少足够付清首期，这样就不必担心荷包突然大出血，进而影响其他生活开支。你也可以投资共同基金或其他较稳定的证券，赚取分红和利息，好让储蓄增加得更快、加速计划的实现。（下期待续）

了解首次公开发售的价值--MAXIS IPO 涟漪

11月可说是今年市场最兴旺的月份，5家公司不同而约在大马交易所挂牌上市，发售首次公开发售（IPO）以筹集总值约118亿令吉的资金。虽然亚洲的 IPO热潮在近期内因为中国企业的过量献售而有所减退，但我国市场却逆向而行的迎来多个IPO计划，而当中最令人雀跃的莫过于明讯 (Maxis)的IPO。此次的明讯IPO发售计划可说是今年亚太区最大型的，虽说可供公众申购的数量有限，而且截止日期已到，但这依然是受国内外投资者所瞩目的市场活动，本期就让我们就借以明讯的上市来谈谈IPO的价值评估方法。
首次公开发售(IPO)是私人公司首次发售予公众的股票。这些私人公司通常都是属于较小型、年轻的公司，以寻求资金扩展业务，但也可以是寻求上市的大型私人公司。IPO的投资风险较大，因为股票是新上市的，投资者很难去预测其未来发展， 也碍于缺少过去的表现报告，以致不确定因素较一般股票高。

然而这次的明讯IPO是个比较特别的例子，因为这是该公司的第二次寻求上市，投资者可参考及研究明讯过去5年（2002至2007）的股市表现。另外，身为全马最大的电讯服务提供者、占市场40% 比重的明讯，其业绩和发展一直以来都是市场焦点，所以要搜索相关资料并不难，也降低了当中的不确定因素。

适逢久违的大型集资活动，投资者对于明讯的IPO发售感到雀跃、反映相当热烈是可以理解的。本人也被分配1000股，在最后一天特的驾车到MIH在总部交上蓝表格，出现大塞车，大家都忙着在最后一天，希望在MAXIS IPO里赚一笔，好久都没有这样热烈的情况了。不过，大家要知道，除了公司所给予的乐观展望与回酬保证，投资者本身还是要保持机警，自己分析IPO或是其他股票的价值，避免被公司的花言巧语所魅惑。

就像是市场的金融证券或是超市的消费者产品，IPO的价格也同样被供应和需求所左右。当出现供不应求的情况时，股价就会攀升；当供应过剩时，股价就会下跌。这次的明讯IPO超额认购已经达到一倍，表示该公司能把股价调高至超过预定的 5.20令吉。虽说是优质的蓝筹股，但其股价是否合理，只要计算一下就可大略知道了。

要知道股价是否合理，可通过股票的市盈率（P/E）来做指标。将每股市价除以每股盈利（Earning Per Share, EPS），得到的结果再用来与其他同类股票的市盈率比较，可帮助投资者选择适合的股票。一般而言，越低的市盈率表示股票的投资风险越小。以明讯的每股市价来推测，其市盈率并不低，风险也较高；但是其高股息、强劲的自由现金流量，以及给予投资者参与大马流动通讯服务的机会等，让许多投资者认为这项投资是值得的。

要分析某家公司的IPO是否值得投资，以及减低损失，事前功课一定少不了。在决定投资前不妨先问问自己 以下这些问题，以便更全面分析某项IPO的价值：
1. 为什么这家公司会被批准挂牌上市？
2. 该公司集资的目的是什么？会把筹到的资金用在什么用途上？
3. 该公司的产品或服务所面对的市场竞争。该公司在竞争环境下的地位是什么？
4. 该公司的成长展望是多少？
5. 该公司预期会达到多少收入？
6. 公司的管理层是否曾经运营上市公司？是否有足够的经验和资历去经营该公司？在商业投机方面是否曾经获得成功？管理层本身有没有持有股份？
7. 该公司的营运纪录表现如何？
不管是IPO还是其他股票，聪明的投资者不会盲目跟风，反而会先分析股价。如果他们发现是物有所值的，他们会购买并长期持有该股票。相反的，如果发现该股票的价格不合理，他们也不会浪费时间和金钱，反而会把注意力放在其他公司。这就是市场永不变的定律。

〈奧士卡理财---理财天下〉 (220)--南洋商报（每逢星期五）

Think Like Warren Buffett

Back in 1999, Robert G. Hagstrom wrote a book about the legendary investor Warren Buffett, entitled "The Warren Buffett Portfolio". What's so great about the book, and what makes it different from the countless other books and articles written about the "Oracle of Omaha" is that it offers the reader valuable insight into how Buffett actually thinks about investments. In other words, the book delves into the psychological mindset that has made Buffett so fabulously wealthy. (For more on Warren Buffett and his current holdings, check out Coattail Investor.)

Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we've selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett's head.

1. Think of Stocks as a Business

Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn't necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.

That's why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as "part owners" of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term "owners" also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns.

2. Increase the Size of Your Investment
Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due diligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.

Buffett's stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it's not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?

3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover

Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That's because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.

The "Oracle" contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.

Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They'll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.

4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks

While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.

Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that.

5. Learn to Think in Probabilities

Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world.

Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents' hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.

Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.

6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing

Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.

More than anything, investors' own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to "retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."

Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset.

7. Ignore Market Forecasts

There is an old saying that the Dow "climbs a wall of worry". In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is "just around the corner", the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.

On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.

In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company's intrinsic value(through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.

8. Wait for the Fat Pitch

Hagstrom's book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player.

Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.

Bottom Line

"The Warren Buffett Portfolio" is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett's proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.@by Glenn Curtis