Saturday, November 26, 2011

Sunday, March 27, 2011

The Surging Yen Is Now Over

What is Next?

The Group of Seven nations met last Thursday to discuss the impact of Japan's deepening nuclear crisis.

Group of Seven will discussed how to calm financial markets spooked by the nuclear crisis.

Japanese Economic Minister, Kaoru Yosano, insisted the Yen and Japanese stock markets were not in a state of turmoil and that the government would like the G7 "to merely provide a psychological prop to markets."

The Yen surged to a record high against the Greenback last week, while shares in Japan and elsewhere in Asia fell after US officials said the risk of a catastrophic radiation leak from the already crippled Japanese nuclear plant was rising.

In a further blow, the Yen jumped higher on speculation Japanese insurers would repatriate funds to pay for massive claims following the deadly 9.0 quake and the devastating tsunami that destroyed the northeastern Japan.

The disaster and subsequent nuclear crisis have caused hundreds of billions of dollars to disappear off global stock markets.

Japan's Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, Yosano dismissed talk about repatriation of money and said speculation, not fund flows, was responsible for the currency's surge, which threatens to increase pressure on the already devastated economy. "I don't think stock and currency markets are in a state of turmoil," Yosano said. He said this in response to whether or not the G-7 should intervene. "We would like to get psychological support from the G7," he said.

G7 leaders held a teleconference last Thursday with Japan will explain the extent of the damage and the financial market situation.

While government officials were stepping up verbal intervention, the Bank of Japan has continued to pump massive amounts of money into money markets to ensure it would not seize up; with the latest offer of 5 trillion yen in same-day funds. The bank had already injected a record 20 trillion, through a combination of same day and longer tenor funds. Further injections seem imminent.

However, there is not that much that the BoJ or other economic leaders can do. The current surge is being driven by the nuclear crisis that seems to be abating as of now. While Japan's currency rose 3.74 percent against the dollar in the six days after the March 11 temblor, it is poised to drop in 2011 by the most in six years. A recent economist survey conducted by Bloomberg shows the Yen is set to depreciate substantially. Currently, we are seeing derivatives traders cutting wagers on further gains after Group of Seven nations followed Japan's lead and sold Yen as it reached a post-World War II high of 76.25 versus the dollar.

The Surging Yen Is Now Over

The Surging Yen Is Now Over

What is Next?

The Group of Seven nations met last Thursday to discuss the impact of Japan's deepening nuclear crisis.

Group of Seven will discussed how to calm financial markets spooked by the nuclear crisis.

Japanese Economic Minister, Kaoru Yosano, insisted the Yen and Japanese stock markets were not in a state of turmoil and that the government would like the G7 "to merely provide a psychological prop to markets."

The Yen surged to a record high against the Greenback last week, while shares in Japan and elsewhere in Asia fell after US officials said the risk of a catastrophic radiation leak from the already crippled Japanese nuclear plant was rising.

In a further blow, the Yen jumped higher on speculation Japanese insurers would repatriate funds to pay for massive claims following the deadly 9.0 quake and the devastating tsunami that destroyed the northeastern Japan.

The disaster and subsequent nuclear crisis have caused hundreds of billions of dollars to disappear off global stock markets.

Japan's Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, Yosano dismissed talk about repatriation of money and said speculation, not fund flows, was responsible for the currency's surge, which threatens to increase pressure on the already devastated economy. "I don't think stock and currency markets are in a state of turmoil," Yosano said. He said this in response to whether or not the G-7 should intervene. "We would like to get psychological support from the G7," he said.

G7 leaders held a teleconference last Thursday with Japan will explain the extent of the damage and the financial market situation.

Friday, February 4, 2011

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Saturday, July 31, 2010

奧士卡理财--- 南洋1级名家: 理财天下 -两人世界的理财规划

上回我们谈到的是有关两人世界理财规划的重要性。不知对已婚或未婚的您,是否已经有所行动或醒悟了呢?接下来,两人世界应该做出哪方面的投资调整与如何选择投资在适当的理财产品上将会是这课题的主菜。
对于这个个案,我有一位刚新婚的客户。他姓黄,30岁,目前是某公司的经理,每月收入RM3000左右;而他的妻子则是一位幼稚园老师,28岁,每月收入RM1500左右。他与她的妻子刚结婚不久,正面对新婚的压力。
由于他们的积蓄大多都花在布置家局、婚宴、到台湾度蜜月等其他事项上。另一面,他们向某银行贷款一笔数目为了购买一间公寓,而且各自也拥有一辆未供完的轿车为代步上班。另外,他们正打算在两年内进行生小孩计划,加上各自家中都有两老等着他们养。这就是黄先生的新婚家庭状况与未来的计划。
对于这样的一个情况,如果黄先生没有做出适当的规划,相信不久的将来,家庭可能会面临重大的危机,且生小孩计划也许必须一再的延后。要知道,时间是不等人的。如果事情真的如此发生了,黄先生的太太很有可能会变成高龄产妇也说不定;加上家中“四宝”也会随着时间的流逝而病痛缠生。人生必须有很多假设,如果没有了假设性的问题,您也许会毫无顾虑的继续潇洒过人生,挥霍未来钱吧!

接下来,针对以上黄先生的家庭婚姻情况,您可参考以下的理财分析图表。或许正处于以上状况的您,能够得到解决的方案。

理财产品的种类-分析与理财建议

保险类型

夫妻保单
-当两人成为真正的夫妻后,可选择投资在此保单,因为它的性质是可为夫妻俩的未来获得保障。
-他们可互相成为对方的投保人与受益人,也达到夫妻间应尽的权利和义务。
-例子:当其中一方因发生意外而身故时,此保单就能为另一半解决生活上‘钱’的烦恼。
建议:此保单涵盖死亡、残废、严重疾病、意外、住院等保障。因此购买此保险对双方来说是双重的保障。

房屋保险
-当房地产商销售房子给需要贷款的业主时,业主会向银行申请贷款,银行便会要求业主将所要购买的房物作为抵押,并向业主所指定的保险公司购买房屋贷款保险,银行便会凭借着房屋抵押贷款合同与房屋贷款保险给于业主所申请的贷款。
-此保险的性质是,当业主身故或丧失还款能力时,业主的家人不必为此而担忧,因为保险公司将会代替业主继续供贷款。
-除此以外,业主也需要向保险公司购买房屋火险。当房屋发生意外如火灾,土崩等而造成房屋直接损失时,保险公司将会做出适当的赔偿。
建议:由于我们无法预料未来会发生什么事情,因此,此保单所涵盖多种对房屋的保障,可说是利多于弊,对业主可说是有利而无害的。

双亲保单 -此保单提供了双亲的人寿及医疗保障。这使到老年得病的人能够得到很好的治疗,让他们不必为了晚年的生活而烦忧外,更能够很有尊严的度过余生。
建议:针对黄先生的个案,黄先生可为双亲购买此保单,为自己与双亲增加保障。黄先生也不必为了双亲的医疗费用而烦忧。

银行产品
-银行定期存款是一种有期限的储蓄产品。其存款期限可分为一个月,三个月,或一年等等。
建议:其实我并不建议投资者透过此投资产品来进行投资计划,因为透过这个方法作为投资计划的存款者,必须要考量到存款回酬是否能抵消通货膨胀所带来的压力。例如:通货膨胀较高的时候会导致存款被贬值的问题。

基金
-投资基金可分为三种类型,那就是保守型,稳健型与积极型。
-保守型:固定收益基金。其具有低风险、低收益、高流动性与低费用等的特征。
-稳健型:平稳基金。其特征在于投资者可把资金分散投资于股票和债券的共同基金,以保证其资金的安全性和盈利性。
-积极型:股票基金。其投资于上市股票,由专业基金经理管理。
建议:您可进行风险属性的测试以确定所属类型。这样一来,您便可透过各种类型的投资方式达到钱生钱的效果。

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李国源先生是奧士卡国际财富咨询有限公司的执行总裁。奥士卡是在大马证券监督委员会(Securities Commission)之下注册的财务规划公司. 他也是大马证券监督委员会的合法投资代表(财务规划). 他的专长才于为个人、企业和富裕人士提供财务规划的服务.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

奧士卡理财--- 南洋1级名家: 理财天下 : 两人世界理财规划的重要性

两人世界理财规划的重要性

每当一桩婚礼正在进行的时候,就代表着一对新人正要成为一对夫妻,步入二人世界并准备生活在一起。有的人说:“婚姻就像爱情的坟墓。”其解说因人而异,而我的解说是“也许那代表着重生呢!”初建爱巢的两个人必定对未来的生活充满憧憬,也有着许多的计划准备一起进行。虽然说两个人生活在一起看似很简单,事实上却有着许多的交叉路口等着他们。
我举个例子说好了,两个人在一起生活,如果双方都有稳定的工作与薪水,必定会觉得两分薪水加起来会多了不少。但是就在同一时间,相信两人所要支出的项目费用也很多。譬如:购房屋或供房子、布置家居、旅游度蜜月、买车或供车、给父母亲的零花钱、生小孩计划、各方面的开销等等。这些种种事项都需要拥有非常强大的经济能力作为后盾才能除去烦忧。而且,在筹备结婚典礼时,相信已花了不少的费用在拍摄婚纱照,摆酒场地,酒席上等等。
因此,在结婚后的这段期间,是属于两人累积金钱的时间。相信两人在结婚前,都是属于经济独立的个体,各自都拥有一些储蓄与基本的经济能力。这样一来,新婚的两人就不会面对一时间太大的经济压力。另外,结婚后的两人为了家庭的未来计划而首要做的事是,增强家庭的抗风险能力以及确保家庭中拥有良好的资金流动性是非常重要的。例子:当家庭需要用到一笔资金去应急时,两人不必到处去向家人,朋友,甚至是银行借钱。因此,两人必须要对双方的投资比例做出适当的调整并规划出适合两人的理财规划。
当两人一旦有了家庭共识,相信不论面临任何风险都能够避免。除此以外,两人透过这种互补的方式,相信两人的家庭抗风险能力会变得更强。就算面对再多与再大的挑战,两人都有信心能够一起面对和解决。在这前提是,两人必须要有良好的沟通方式,与共同的家庭理财理念,不分你我的精神。
下一期,我将会继续与您分享这个课题,让您清楚了解两人世界应该做出哪方面的调整与如何选择投资在适当的投资产品上。
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李国源先生是奧士卡国际财富咨询有限公司的执行总裁。奥士卡是在大马证券监督委员会(Securities Commission)之下注册的财务规划公司. 他也是大马证券监督委员会的合法投资代表(财务规划). 他的专长才于为个人、企业和富裕人士提供财务规划的服务.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

奧士卡理财--- 南洋1级名家: 理财天下 : 如何规划退休基金(一)

规划退休基金的重要性

每个人都会经过生、老、病、死这四个阶段。而“老”这个阶段恰巧与退休的时刻是相呼应的。“退休”这个词,应该是每个正在拼命奔波劳碌的人们最梦寐以求的阶段。因为劳碌了大半辈子,最享受的时刻大概就是退休的时候吧!一般人们的退休计划莫过于是希望能够实现年轻时的梦想,例如环游世界。而最基本的退休概念则是为了‘养老’,以防止病痛发生而又无子女在旁时,退休基金就显得非常重要了。但是,当你没有任何的资金规划时,可想而知的是任何的梦想都会形同梦幻泡影,无法实现梦想之余,还得继续为金钱而劳碌,伤身又伤神。因此,规划退休基金之事,宜早不宜迟。
规划退休基金是每个人一生中最重要的一环。而规划退休基金是理财规划当中,时间涉及期间最长,资金需求最大的一个重要规划。公积金是由政府及企业所提倡的其中一项退休基金,目的是为了保障员工们的退休金。一般企业提供退休金给员工的主要目的是为了要提高员工们的劳动积极性,使他们老的时候有所依靠,对社会的安定与提高企业效益均有益处。在我国,一位员工的退休公积金占有23%。其中11%是从员工的工资里扣除,而12%则是由企业所支付给员工的。根据过往的报道,有72%的退休公积金存款者,在3年内即花完公积金存款。所以,单靠公积金是不足够退休的。因而导致多数的人民在到了退休年龄之时,都继续工作,不能言休。
通常,一般的人都会将金钱配置在较为广泛的资产上,例如各类型的股票,基金与债卷等等作为退休基金。但是,投资产品应该有定期自动调整资产配置比例,依据投资者所预设的退休日期而逐步降低投资高风险组合的产品。我举个例子说好了,陈先生在20至30岁期间,可将大部分的投资金都投资在风险较高的产品上,比如股票等,因为他能承担风险的能力较高。相反的,当陈先生在50岁以上这段期间,会因为要求生活上的安定而将投资金都转投在风险较低的产品上,比如债卷等,因为他能承担风险的能力较低。
退休金就同等于养老金。我建议一些已踏出社会的年轻人应该提早规划退休基金,这样一来,他们就不必在已到退休年龄的时期还在为金钱而奔波劳碌。除此以外,有了完善的退休规划,晚年的生活会活得更舒适与有尊严。
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李国源先生是奧士卡国际财富咨询有限公司的执行总裁。奥士卡是在大马证券监督委员会(Securities Commission)之下注册的财务规划公司. 他也是大马证券监督委员会的合法投资代表(财务规划). 他的专长才于为个人、企业和富裕人士提供财务规划的服务.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

投资理财-2010选择股票的三大原则 (看好的潜力股)

Sean Lee 明确指出在2010年讨论大盘上涨多少其实意义不大,而更重要的是遵从三个原则选择股票。

第一原则:历史业绩非常棒,现金流很充分,PE不高,PE不高十五倍到二十倍之间。

第二原则:有未来的成长性并和国家整个产业政策是吻合的,尤其是七大新兴战略型产业 (新能源、新材料、新医药、电动汽车、节能环保、以及通讯产业的,还有生物育种)。

第三原则:历史上没有骗过人

股神”巴菲特"-出售能源股增持银行股

香港媒体援引外电报道称,“股神”巴菲特的投资旗舰巴郡在去年第4季,减持婴儿用品生产商琼森、大型日用品生产商宝洁及两间能源公司的股份,以便集资收购铁路公司“柏林顿北方圣塔菲”(BNSF),另一方面增持富国银行、沃尔玛等公司股份。

  巴郡披露截至去年底其总值579亿美元的美国投资组合,被互惠基金和个别投资者视为“偷师目标”,从中分析巴菲特的投资策略。分析认为,巴菲特上述投资组合改变,是要离开那些在经济衰退时表现良好的股票。

  根据巴郡周二向监管机构提交的文件显示,该公司将所持琼森股票出售26%、所持宝洁股票出售9%、所持美国康菲石油公司股票出售34%,与巴菲特2008年为投资高盛和通用电气而出售的股票相同,这次是为了“鲸吞”BNSF而集资。

  文件也披露,巴郡还减持美国埃克森美孚石油、太阳信托银行等股票。当中,巴郡出售22%的太阳信托,持股量减到少于1%,约240万股。美国对冲基金Paulson&Co则与巴郡唱反调,看好太阳信托,增持该公司股票至6.1%,约3,040万股。

  除了富国银行外,巴郡也增持数据文件储存公司IronMountain、零售巨擘沃尔玛、医疗设备制造商BectonDickinson、废物管理公司RepublicServices,Inc。等股票。其中巴郡拥有3.2亿股富国银行,较前一季增加2.1%.

中国地产--2010年五大城市房地产最具投资价值

中新网2月19日电无论政策如何变幻,房子总是要买的,每一个生活在这个城市的一分子都希望能有属于自己的一套房。随着各大区域发展规划的出台与几条高铁的开通,及民间资本的转移,虎年部分城市的房价可能又涨上一个新台阶,想买房的要抓紧了。不过,在您出手之前,小编提醒您,楼市也有风险,入市更需谨慎。

天津

随着城际列车的开通,天津受益北京所带来的辐射作用越来越明显。日前又有报道称,天津与北京、重庆、上海、广州一起,被确定为国家五大中心城市,加外,去年环渤海区域经济发展及天津滨海新区规划获批,天津房价的升值潜力由此可见。

长沙

目前,长沙市中心的房价均价在7000~8000元/平方米。而最被长沙市民看好的武广新城,也因为武广和长沙地铁二号线而价格倍增。具体来看,“两型社会”、“先导区”等的建设,长株潭、武汉城市圈的发展,武广高铁的通车、地铁的开建,另外部分外地人士返乡置业等原因都将导致长沙房价的大涨。

西安

业内称,自住为主的西安,其刚性购买力是最大的特点。目前出现在市场的购买力主要还是以刚性需求为主,这其中尤其以婚房为盛,所以很多购房者一方面对于买房的需求比较迫切,再加之陕西是个教育大省,且西安城市化程度在西部地区居首位,诸多高校毕业生留驻西安,也成为西安刚需购房者的重要组成部分。西安房价伴随着购买力的增强,继续上升的可能性也会很大。

郑州

业界表示,在全国省会城市中,郑州房价倒着数,但地价却正着数,地价比北京也少不了多少。今后很长一段时期内,郑州的房价仍会继续上涨,会逐步与全国其他省会城市看齐,最终将会高于西北地区省会城市房价。

有分析指出,郑州房价正处在阶段性上涨旺盛期,房价冲关的速度也会加快。总体看来,2010年郑州的房价仍会继续走上涨通道,轻松冲过5000元大关,直逼6000元大关。

重庆

思科-T、广达、惠普等 “世界500强”相继入驻重庆,这说明不仅国内企业看好重庆,跨国公司也对重庆充满信心。业内称,众多“世界500强”落户重庆,不仅可促进经济发展,也会拉动房市的销售。最近,重庆首次被城乡建设部列为全国五大中心城市之一,重庆的房价却约为这些城市的1/4或1/5,升值潜力不小。

此外,有报道称近期山西煤老板除了到海南炒房外,也紧盯重庆房地产行业,频频来渝考察,仅仅是近一两个月就有100亿资金在重庆寻找房产项目,此举将炒高重庆房价。(中新网)

Sunday, January 3, 2010

回顾过去,展望未来(上)

2009 年转眼间就快要成为过去式了,相信很多人都会在新的一年来临之际回顾过去一年来自己的成就与成长,以及为接下来的一年定下目标,无论是在事业、感情、个人修行等,当然也少不了财富这方面了。
成为有钱人这个目标虽然可能离我们很远,但理财规划却是跟我们的日常生活息息相关。在2009年,你是否有按照计划并实践规划财务的目标?本期就让我们一起来回顾过去、展望未来,看看你是否有做到以下这些理财相关的步骤,并且为2010年的来临定下理财进度表,一步一步实现你的财务目标。
1. 储蓄
你将钱存进银行户口了吗?这句话看起来有点可笑,因为要靠银行利息来累计财富是不可能的。虽说储蓄户口的利息很少,但也千万别小看这些小钱。别心急的将所有钱都用来投资,应该等待适当的投资机会出现时再出击。在此之前,储蓄户口不失为方便安全的金钱存放处。在你等待投资机会的过程中利息已经慢慢在累计,特别是定期存款户口。将钱分成数份然后放进不同周期的定存,需要时再拿出来用,如此一来就无需担心少赚利息了。

2. 债务
新的一年来临,最避忌就是把往年的旧债带来,所以当务之急就是把手上的债务逐一清除掉。还记得政府宣布从2010年开始每张信用卡要征收RM 50的服务税吗?政府的目的是要减低国民的卡债数额,避免毫无节制的花费。如果你手上拥有很多张信用卡,不妨将数量减至经常使用的一两张。除了涉及庞大数额的房贷、车贷、医药费、教育贷款等之外,其他短期内可还清的债务都应该尽早解决掉。

3. 风险管理
风险管理可说是理财规划的基础,在思考如何累计更多财富之前,是时候考虑购买保险或检视你过去的保单。每个年龄层对保险的需求都不一样,从人寿、医药、意外、退休,教育保单等,你应依据本身及家人的需求选购合适的保险;每个人(家庭)的保险支出应该是在年收入的10% 以内。
除了购买保险,立遗嘱也是未雨绸缪的方式之一,特别如果你是家庭的经济支柱,在发生任何不幸意外之前就应该对自己的财产有所规划,以保护受益人。
另外,你已经准备了紧急备用金吗?我们随时都可能面临突然需要一笔钱来应急的情况,先确认自己的紧急备用金是否足够,一般是3到5个月的生活费,必要时可依情况再做增减。

4. 为庞大开支做准备
如果你有计划购买房产或汽车,甚至是全家人出国旅行,你应该趁早为这些计划做好准备。每个月挪出一小部分钱存进特定的户口,让数额慢慢累计至某个程度,例如至少足够付清首期,这样就不必担心荷包突然大出血,进而影响其他生活开支。你也可以投资共同基金或其他较稳定的证券,赚取分红和利息,好让储蓄增加得更快、加速计划的实现。(下期待续)

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

了解首次公开发售的价值--MAXIS IPO 涟漪

11月可说是今年市场最兴旺的月份,5家公司不同而约在大马交易所挂牌上市,发售首次公开发售(IPO)以筹集总值约118亿令吉的资金。虽然亚洲的 IPO热潮在近期内因为中国企业的过量献售而有所减退,但我国市场却逆向而行的迎来多个IPO计划,而当中最令人雀跃的莫过于明讯 (Maxis)的IPO。此次的明讯IPO发售计划可说是今年亚太区最大型的,虽说可供公众申购的数量有限,而且截止日期已到,但这依然是受国内外投资者所瞩目的市场活动,本期就让我们就借以明讯的上市来谈谈IPO的价值评估方法。
首次公开发售(IPO)是私人公司首次发售予公众的股票。这些私人公司通常都是属于较小型、年轻的公司,以寻求资金扩展业务,但也可以是寻求上市的大型私人公司。IPO的投资风险较大,因为股票是新上市的,投资者很难去预测其未来发展, 也碍于缺少过去的表现报告,以致不确定因素较一般股票高。

然而这次的明讯IPO是个比较特别的例子,因为这是该公司的第二次寻求上市,投资者可参考及研究明讯过去5年(2002至2007)的股市表现。另外,身为全马最大的电讯服务提供者、占市场40% 比重的明讯,其业绩和发展一直以来都是市场焦点,所以要搜索相关资料并不难,也降低了当中的不确定因素。

适逢久违的大型集资活动,投资者对于明讯的IPO发售感到雀跃、反映相当热烈是可以理解的。本人也被分配1000股,在最后一天特的驾车到MIH在总部交上蓝表格,出现大塞车,大家都忙着在最后一天,希望在MAXIS IPO里赚一笔,好久都没有这样热烈的情况了。不过,大家要知道,除了公司所给予的乐观展望与回酬保证,投资者本身还是要保持机警,自己分析IPO或是其他股票的价值,避免被公司的花言巧语所魅惑。

就像是市场的金融证券或是超市的消费者产品,IPO的价格也同样被供应和需求所左右。当出现供不应求的情况时,股价就会攀升;当供应过剩时,股价就会下跌。这次的明讯IPO超额认购已经达到一倍,表示该公司能把股价调高至超过预定的 5.20令吉。虽说是优质的蓝筹股,但其股价是否合理,只要计算一下就可大略知道了。

要知道股价是否合理,可通过股票的市盈率(P/E)来做指标。将每股市价除以每股盈利(Earning Per Share, EPS),得到的结果再用来与其他同类股票的市盈率比较,可帮助投资者选择适合的股票。一般而言,越低的市盈率表示股票的投资风险越小。以明讯的每股市价来推测,其市盈率并不低,风险也较高;但是其高股息、强劲的自由现金流量,以及给予投资者参与大马流动通讯服务的机会等,让许多投资者认为这项投资是值得的。

要分析某家公司的IPO是否值得投资,以及减低损失,事前功课一定少不了。在决定投资前不妨先问问自己 以下这些问题,以便更全面分析某项IPO的价值:
1. 为什么这家公司会被批准挂牌上市?
2. 该公司集资的目的是什么?会把筹到的资金用在什么用途上?
3. 该公司的产品或服务所面对的市场竞争。该公司在竞争环境下的地位是什么?
4. 该公司的成长展望是多少?
5. 该公司预期会达到多少收入?
6. 公司的管理层是否曾经运营上市公司?是否有足够的经验和资历去经营该公司?在商业投机方面是否曾经获得成功?管理层本身有没有持有股份?
7. 该公司的营运纪录表现如何?
不管是IPO还是其他股票,聪明的投资者不会盲目跟风,反而会先分析股价。如果他们发现是物有所值的,他们会购买并长期持有该股票。相反的,如果发现该股票的价格不合理,他们也不会浪费时间和金钱,反而会把注意力放在其他公司。这就是市场永不变的定律。

〈奧士卡理财---理财天下〉 (220)--南洋商报(每逢星期五)

Friday, November 6, 2009

Think Like Warren Buffett

Back in 1999, Robert G. Hagstrom wrote a book about the legendary investor Warren Buffett, entitled "The Warren Buffett Portfolio". What's so great about the book, and what makes it different from the countless other books and articles written about the "Oracle of Omaha" is that it offers the reader valuable insight into how Buffett actually thinks about investments. In other words, the book delves into the psychological mindset that has made Buffett so fabulously wealthy. (For more on Warren Buffett and his current holdings, check out Coattail Investor.)

Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we've selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett's head.

1. Think of Stocks as a Business

Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn't necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.

That's why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as "part owners" of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term "owners" also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns.

2. Increase the Size of Your Investment
Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due diligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.

Buffett's stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it's not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?

3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover

Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That's because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.

The "Oracle" contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.

Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They'll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.

4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks

While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.

Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that.

5. Learn to Think in Probabilities

Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world.

Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents' hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.

Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.

6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing

Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.

More than anything, investors' own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to "retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."

Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset.

7. Ignore Market Forecasts

There is an old saying that the Dow "climbs a wall of worry". In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is "just around the corner", the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.

On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.

In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company's intrinsic value(through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.

8. Wait for the Fat Pitch

Hagstrom's book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player.

Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.

Bottom Line

"The Warren Buffett Portfolio" is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett's proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.@by Glenn Curtis

Thursday, November 5, 2009

SOHO族的生活与理财方式 1

金融风暴造成企业盈利减少,甚至面临亏损、倒闭的危机。美国著名汽车生产商通用汽车公司申请破产保护,结束其曾经是全球最大汽车制造商的光荣时刻。本地也有旅行社在不堪金融海啸的冲击,以及近期的甲型H1N1流感的爆发,而突然清盘停业,令客户与相关业者感到惊讶。

其实经济衰退已从政府公布的数据中显现出来,我国首季国内生产总值剧跌至8年来新低,经济成长呈负成长6.2%。有些员工被缩减工作时数、一些人则放无薪假期或被裁员,造成收入大大减少。

在工作难求之下,失业者只好从事兼职或短期合约的工作,这样总比失业来得好吧。另一方面,在经济萎缩的担忧之下,一些公司更愿意聘请临时员工,或将工作外包给别人,以节省各种全职员工的福利支出。这就形成了经济虽不好,兼职的机会却有增加的趋势。

根据人力资源顾问公司Kelly Services的调查显示,美国现今的就业人口中,自由工作者的比例达26%,比3年前的19%成长,增加了7%。我国的情况也相似,尤其在宽频(broadband)以及办公软件的普及化之下,在家办公已不是遥不可及的任务了。

自由工作者也可被称为SOHO族,既英文small office home office 的缩写,就是有别于传统在公司上班的工作模式,而是在自己的家里办公。在家里工作或许是许多上班族的理想工作环境,因为SOHO族不用一大早起床塞在车龙里,也可以自由地分配个人的时间。

但是,并不是每种行业都适合以SOHO方式进行。最普遍的SOHO行业包括了网络拍卖、平面设计、文字创作、造型设计、专业顾问、公关等。SOHO的自由特性尤其更适合艺术创作者,因为SOHO族的工作时间与地点较富弹性,SOHO族可从生活中获取更多的创作灵感,不用受办公室的制度所牵制。

SOHO族并不单单在家工作那么简单,SOHO族也可以分成以下几种:

(一)自雇人士

自雇人士既是老板也是员工,收入的多少全由自己的努力、成果而定。有些自雇人士服务于特定的企业;有些人则同时间为不同的公司提供服务,不受制于任何企业。自雇人士包括了保险人员、直销人士、会计师等等。

(二)兼职SOHO

兼职SOHO顾名思义就是那些有工作的上班族,利用下班或周日休息的时间从事兼职。这群SOHO族利用多余的时间为自己增加收入,并可累积更多的工作经验。一些兼职SOHO拥有全职工作的保障之余,也希望涉及新的领域,或开创自己的事业。

所以,SOHO一族接外包工作回家,或成立网上购物网,都是测试个人的能力,以及试探市场的方法之一。若市场反应良好,兼职SOHO就能全身投入在SOHO行业中,摆脱打卡上班的日子了。

(三)企业SOHO

SOHO族中并不是全部人都自己当老板,也有一些SOHO族为特定的企业打工。他们与一般上班族的分别在于,他们不用时常到办公室,而是在家里办公。这群SOHO族利用科技的方便与公司或客户联络,例如MSNSkpeemail等等。他们所从事的职业包括了翻译员、网站制作员等等,并且熟悉一切科技与网络操作。

其实成为SOHO族有利有弊,好处是较弹性的工作时间与地点,以及不受上司或老板的牵制。但是,一些人在开始SOHO生活时,却无法自律,早上的工作拖到中午才开始。

此外,一些SOHO族则将生活与工作混为一体,将工作时间都用来购买食物、日常用品、处理家务等等。若家人不了解SOHO族的工作方式,一直找他们聊天、处理家里的各种琐碎事情,就会严重影响SOHO族的工作进度。

因此,SOHO族的工作时间就被这些繁杂事务所占据,造成他们必须开夜车才能将工作完成。对于突如其来的订单或案子,SOHO族也没有同事可以共同分担,必须独自完成工作。

这样一来,SOHO族的工作时间就比普通上班族更长,健康也可能因此受损。所以,一名成功的SOHO族必须有自制能力,以及良好的时间管理,才能在工作与生活间取得平衡。


Thursday, October 29, 2009

Malaysian Islamic Financial Market Liberalisation is a 'Revelation' for Foreign Banks


The opening up of the Islamic finance market through the liberalisation measures announced in April 2009 by Prime Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak and over the years, and Malaysia's interest in developing cross-border activity have been a revelation, confirms Richard Thomas, CEO of Gatehouse Bank plc, the latest Islamic investment bank to be authorised by the UK s Financial Services Authority (FSA).

"I have been looking at Malaysia for the last 20 years and found it a difficult market to penetrate in the past. But suddenly with the new regime and the liberalisation; and the work done by Governor Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz at Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) and Chairman Zarinah Anwar at the Securities Commission of Malaysia (SC) has really made the difference between mere interest and practical development. We are directly engaged with the work done by both. We have some small direct equity investment in Malaysia but we are also working very closely with the authorities there and with Bursa Malaysia, the stock exchange, in developing future products,"added Richard Thomas.

From the banking side bankers stress that they are seeing progress on standardising capital markets and money market products which now allows London and Kuala Lumpur to cooperate in the future in banking and finance. In terms of asset management there are a lot of opportunities for Malaysia as a destination for capital, but also as a source of capital for regional investment.

The above sentiments are virtually universal in the Islamic finance sector, which sees Kuala Lumpur providing essential leadership to the global industry. At the same time, Malaysia is a strong supporter of mainstreaming Islamic finance as part of the global financial system, and is also keen to encourage cross-border financial and economic links between Malaysia and the member countries of the Islamic Development Bank and the major financial markets of the world.

These liberalisation measures which will be implemented over the period 2009 to 2012, explained Prime Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, are in line with the Government's initiative to promote structural change within the economy and diversify sources of growth to further drive economic expansion. The financial services sector is an integral component of the economy, and has increased its share in GDP from 9.2 per cent in 2000 to 11 per cent in 2008. More than 140,000 workers are employed by banking institutions and insurance companies in Malaysia.

The latest measures are in line with the provisions set out in the Financial Sector Master Plan (FSMP) announced in 2001 by the then Government of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamed and which set out the roadmap for the liberalisation of the conventional and Islamic banking and insurance sectors in Malaysia. According to BNM, around 90 per cent of the FSMP initiatives have already been completed.

BNM fast-tracked the liberalisation of the Islamic financial sector under the FSMP by three years through the issuance in 2006/7 of dedicated Islamic banking licences to Al-Rajhi Bank of Saudi Arabia; Kuwait Finance House; and a consortium led by Qatar Islamic Bank. BNM two years ago also approved the acquisition of a substantial minority stake by Dubai International Group in the flagship Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad (BIMB), the first Islamic bank to be authorised in Malaysia in 1983. BNM stresses that the new measures are aimed at enhancing interlinkages to leverage on global developments in Islamic finance and reinforce Malaysia's position as an international Islamic financial hub.

Under the new liberalisation measures announced by the Government, BNM will issue

  • up to two new Islamic banking licences in 2009 under the Islamic Banking Act 1983 to world class foreign players to establish new Islamic banks with paid-up capital of at least USD1bn; and
  • up to two new family Takaful (Islamic insurance) licences in 2009 to players that can offer significant value proposition to Malaysia to spur the development of the Takaful industry.

Malaysia, according to Prime Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, will give priority to those market players who have the capacity to contribute in areas where there are gaps and in which there are new areas of growth in the financial system, as well as to reinforce Malaysia's position as an international Islamic financial hub. Several applications for licences have been received from major players, and these are being processed accordingly.

The Government has also changed the ceilings for foreign equity ownership in onshore Malaysian Islamic banks, investment banks, insurance companies and Takaful operators from the current 49 per cent to 70 per cent. This means that foreign shareholders can have a majority equity stake in a Malaysian financial institution in the above categories, which does not include commercial domestic Malaysian banks where the foreign equity shareholding remains at the current 30 per cent. Where this happens, the paid-up capital of the bank must be maintained at a minimum of USD1bn. Such alliances would strengthen business potential and enhance growth prospects of Malaysian financial institutions through the international expertise and global networks of foreign shareholders.

The liberalisation plan, will be supplemented with sufficient safeguards to ensure that the overall financial intermediation function of the financial system remains intact, effective and sound. Capacity and institutional building efforts will continue to be pursued, complemented by enhancements to the regulatory, supervisory and surveillance framework to preserve the resilience of the financial system.

The Government is also giving locally-incorporated foreign commercial banks greater flexibility to increase branches so as to achieve greater financial inclusion and insurance penetration in the country. Locally-incorporated foreign commercial banks will be allowed to establish four new full-fledged branches with effect in 2010 and ten microfinance branches with effect from this year. Similarly, the Government is easing visa requirements for the employment of expatriates in specialist areas that can contribute to the development of the financial sector.@ MIFC eNewsletter

Monday, September 21, 2009

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